The joint U.S.-Israeli military offensive against Iran — Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, launched February 28, 2026 — now includes an explicit mission of regime change. This dramatically raises the probability that Iran will order full-scale attacks not just on Israel and U.S. citizens abroad, but on the U.S. homeland.

With the Iranian regime facing the largest internal revolt since 1979 and sustained U.S./Israeli strikes targeting top leaders — including Supreme Leader Khamenei’s compound — Iran’s leadership may calculate they have nothing left to lose. Expect their strongest possible retaliatory actions.

The FBI and DHS have already confirmed that U.S. strikes on Iran “raise the threat environment here in the United States.” The NYPD announced enhanced patrols at sensitive locations across New York City within hours of today’s strikes. These agencies have tracked 27 Iranian-linked plots in the United States since 2011, and the West Point Combating Terrorism Center has documented Iran’s “homeland option” — a long-developed capability to strike inside America using Iranian agents, criminal proxies, and terrorist surrogates.

THE BIO THREAT

Thanks to U.S. government-funded “gain of function” research on viruses like H5N1, Iran — or other hostile actors — could release a deadly virus in the U.S. H5N1 was long known as Avian or Bird Flu, but published, government-funded research demonstrated how to make this virus airborne-transmissible between mammals. H5N1 has now been detected in over 70 mammal species worldwide. Sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission has been confirmed in at least three settings — European mink farms, South American marine mammals, and U.S. dairy cattle — and there are likely more. Efficient human-to-human airborne transmission, whether through natural mutation or deliberate manipulation, is now considered inevitable by experts including Dr. Robert Redfield, former Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Using simple methods or widely available CRISPR bioengineering technology, Iran and other state and non-state actors have the capability to develop a weaponized virus. Some H5N1 variants have historically shown case fatality rates exceeding 50% in humans. Iran has the capability to covertly deliver a novel pathogen across multiple U.S. cities simultaneously.

There are hundreds of identified Iranian operatives and supporters already prosecuted or under surveillance in the U.S. Iran has an extensive, documented practice of leveraging criminal proxies, terrorist surrogates, and agents already present in the country. It takes only a few dozen operatives, as the calculation below shows, to release a virus that could infect millions of Americans within days — even with early detection and immediate warnings.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

With the successful Ukrainian ground invasion into Russia the risk of Russian use of nuclear weapons is high.  It will likely be limited battlefield use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, but attacks on Poland, NATO getting drawn into the war, are possible.

Reuters just issued (Aug 27) a report that “Russia said the West was playing with fire by considering allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with Western missiles and cautioned the United States on Tuesday that World War Three would not be confined to Europe.  Ukraine attacked Russia’s western Kursk region on Aug. 6 and has carved out a slice of territory in the biggest foreign attack on Russia since World War Two. President Vladimir Putin said there would be a worthy response from Russia to the attack.”

Putin and Russia have warned over the past year that they would use nuclear weapons to stop Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory, and take action against NATO countries supplying advanced, long-range conventional weaponry.  They have done very public nuclear exercises to broadcast the threat.  It is a realistic threat, especially with Putin’s reputation, rule, and predicament.

Some analysts have been ridiculing Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons as bluffs.  Russia did threaten NATO to stop expansion towards their borders, and followed thru on these threats by seizing Crimea, and then invading Ukraine.  Collapse Survivor intelligence analysts asses the Russian threat to use nuclear weapons against at least Ukraine as very serious and likely. 

Russia’s conventional forces have failed miserably in the war with Ukraine—and the latest situation with Ukrainian forces advancing into Russia, doing very well, is pushing Putin into a position where he may believe he must take decisive action to stop Ukrainian attacks and reverse his military failure in Ukraine.  Putin has made it clear that Russia’s nuclear doctrine calls for use of nuclear weapons when their territorial integrity is threatened.  The successful, humiliating Ukrainian push into the Kursk Region not only gives Putin a fantastic excuse to use nuclear weapons while blaming Ukraine, but may demand this response to avoid ruining the credibility of Russian nuclear threats. 

Low yield battlefield nuclear weapons will likely be used in airbursts to minimize radioactive fallout.  They can destroy Ukrainian forces above ground and Ukrainian bases, with targets selected to minimize civilian casualties. 

Unlike conventional battles, Russia will have decisive advantages in fighting a nuclear war in Ukraine and Europe.  Russian nuclear weapons use is also more likely because the U.S. unilaterally destroyed its battlefield nuclear weapons in hopes that Russia would as well.  Instead, Russia and China have expanded their battlefield, tactical nuclear capability.  Western refusal to train for nuclear warfare (politically correct for buying votes, disastrous for deterrence of and survival in nuclear combat) further invites Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. With NATO effectively unable to fight a battlefield nuclear war, Putin may also use nuclear weapons to strike bases in Poland and elsewhere that are providing long range weapons that Ukraine is firing into Russia, delivering a crushing blow to NATO, forcing them to back down, bringing great glory to Putin.

According to U.S. nuclear doctrine, limited use of nuclear weapons is wrong and impossible—we threaten escalation to strategic nuclear exchanges, strikes on the enemy’s home territory.  European NATO members will demand this, and if the U.S. POTUS agrees, war in Europe could escalate to nuclear exchanges between the U.S. and Russia.

If you do not have a radiation detector, or belong to a Survival Community that has them,  you should buy one.  The Fortitude Ranch survival community uses the GQ GMC-320Plus Nuclear Radiation Detector Meter. 

You also need to know how to use it and understand radiation effects and exposure limits. This takes some education and training, but a good overview of nuclear fallout survival issues is available in this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8cYPVQqV6c&t=199s

Do not stockpile Potassium Iodine and believe this is some magical cure for radiation exposure.  It is not, as the article below in the Collapse Survivor website “Preparedness Knowledgebase” explains.  In the Preparedness Knowledgebase go to “Radiation,” then “Radiation doses, health impacts” and select the first PDF on Potassium Iodine:

https://collapsesurvivor.com/preparedness-knowledgebase-2/

You should be prepared to deal with radioactive fallout.

The national Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch due to large solar flare activity, the most severe warning since 2005.  We cannot predict effects, but there is a higher (though still probably low) risk of a solar flare that could damage some or much of the electric grid.  One expert has estimated a 10% risk of damage to the grid, but this is highly uncertain.   The impact will be Friday afternoon through Sunday.  Peak risk will be Saturday.  You should be prepared for a loss of the grid, cell phone, Internet services.  Treat this as a good opportunity to update your plans to get your family together when unable to communicate (your planned meet up locations), have bug out bags ready, and be prepared for a collapse.  This is not making news at this time, so a trip to supermarket, buying ammunition would likely be quite safe.

This is a real threat alert—not a collapse survivor simulation exercise message.

The H5N1 virus, previously known as Avian or Bird Flu, is spreading into more mammal populations. A recent human case in the U.S. is not from human-to-human transmission, but the risk is increasing. H5N1, historically about 60% lethal to humans, underwent a major mutation last year, enabling it to spread in many mammal populations globally. With H5N1 now found in 50 mammal populations, including humans, these hosts serve as “mixing vessels,” facilitating the virus’s spread to new species. In March, the U.S. reported its first cases of goats with H5N1, and the virus infected dairy cattle in Kansas and Texas. Contrary to CDC reassurances, H5N1 poses a significant threat: it’s mutating, adapting, spreading, and could become transmissible between humans at any time. While not a call for isolation, panic or going into collapse survival mode, this is a warning to prepare for a potentially severe pandemic and collapse.

For more details on the H5N1 threat a report is available at: https://collapsesurvivor.com/report.php