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Ray Dalio, founder and CEO of one of the largest, most successful hedge funds, made his fortune by correctly predicting future major events.  His estimate of a greater than 50% likelihood of “some form of civil war” post POTUS election is a widespread concern.   But what kind of violence or war is likely to result?   Will states secede and the nation break up?  Will divided Americans protesting and fighting lead to widespread loss of law and order and a societal collapse?

To answer the question of what kind of civil war violence may result post-election, intelligence officers and analysts working with the “Collapse Survivor App” have been studying reports from Dalio, experts who have worked on CIA models, and then getting input from people playing realistic simulations of post-election civil war scenarios.  The U.S. military owes much of its success to realistic training exercises, “command post” or “tabletop” exercises that simulate different scenarios that could lead to war.  Using input from intelligence officers, analysts, and experts who have studied political instability, the Collapse Survivor App ran several simulations, with the Democratic candidate or Trump winning in the different scenarios played on the App.  The hundreds of people playing the simulation were then polled about what kind of violence they expect to result.

Dr. Drew Miller, who received a Masters Degree and PhD in Public Policy from Harvard University, and served as an intelligence officer, Colonel in the U.S. Air Force, explained that:

“the divisions in the United States today are fundamentally over limited, Constitutional government versus unlimited, unconstitutional government that can regulate and interfere in any aspect of life.  These political differences are not based on states, and reflect more in whether people live in rural or urban areas.  Conservatives and Libertarians don’t like unlimited, Big Government so they tend to stay out of big cities and, when possible, states like California where the Democratic Party and unlimited government reign.”

There is a strong possibility of states seceding if Harris wins, largely because of Texas and its organized and very popular secession movement:  TEXIT.[1]

While the U.S. political divisions have been developing for decades, people playing the Collapse Survivor App civil war scenario simulations were asked whether or not Donald Trump increased the likelihood of the 2024 POTUS election leading to civil war.  37% believed it has no impact, 63% believe that Trump running for re-election does increase the likelihood of violence and some form of civil war.

In the Democratic candidate wins simulation, 8% of Collapse Survivor App training simulation players believed that some states would secede with fighting between them and the U.S.  23% believed states like Texas would secede, but there would be no “civil war” fighting with the remaining United States.  Most expected some violence, but not secession.

In the second Collapse Survivor App scenario where Trump defeated Harris, a different type of post-election division played out. California’s Democratic Party dominated, liberal legislature started talking about secession, but faced a more immediate problem:  rural conservative counties in California started rebelling against state governments they believe are violating their “Natural Rights” as Americans to be left alone, protected in the U.S. Constitution by the 9^th Amendment and others.  In Democratic controlled state governments including California, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, New York and Massachusetts, rural, conservative counties  expanded their current rebellion against state gun control laws to include kicking state government officials out of their counties and refusing to follow zoning and building code laws forced by urban-dominated state governments into rural counties that oppose such rules.

Most players expect violence regardless of who wins, 41% in the Trump beats Harris simulation.  The major violence expected in a Trump wins scenario is violent protests that lead to widespread loss of law and order, with criminals taking advantage of overwhelmed police to loot and even rob/kill people in their homes.  This type of protest violence leading to looting has occurred in recent years in places like Portland, Oregon, but may happen on a far wider scale post election.  Only 3% believed that Harris supporters would accept a Trump win and not get violent.  26% believe that massive violence is more likely if Trump wins.  Just 21% believe that there will be no violence post-election.

A major training lesson from the Collapse Survivor App, which offers weekly exercise simulations of different disasters that could lead to a collapse, is that when police are overwhelmed with protestors, criminals and gang members can exploit this and law and order can quickly vanish.

The more important question is how severe and long lasting the post-election violence will be.  Does it escalate into a “collapse”—law enforcement so overwhelmed that law and order vanishes over wide areas, economic activity largely ends, food is not delivered, and society breaks down.  This question was addressed by 23 intelligence officers, political scientists, biologists, defense analysts, and scientists in a recent update of the “Probability of Collapse Model” maintained by Disaster Preparedness LLC and presented at a recent press conference.  Experts reviewed 50 disaster “trigger events” that could spark a collapse, including the high probability of Nuclear War, a Bioengineered H5N1Pandemic, Civil War risk, which have all increased.   The Probability of Collapse model now estimates a 16 to 57% annual likelihood of a collapse.

Below is a video link for the Oct press conference, which was held at Rocky Flats near Denver, a former nuclear weapons production plant.

This model weighs both the probability of the initial trigger disaster event occurring, and then the likelihood of the initial disaster disruption spreading in coverage area and escalating to a collapse level disaster where economic activity largely ceases, and there is widespread loss of law and order, society breaks down.

The press conference reviewed the many threats that could kill directly or lead to economic shut down, looting, violence that escalates in unpredictable manner and results in marauder home invasions.

Top 5 collapse threats according to the Probability of Collapse model are:

1.              3% annual likelihood:  Loss of the electric grid, from solar flares, physical attacks, cyber-attacks, or EMP from a nuclear detonation high in the atmosphere

2.              2.6% annual chance of a pandemic; a bioengineered virus from a bio attack by nation states, terrorists, or individual, or a natural pandemic from a mutation

3.              2% annual risk of a domestic civil war (far more likely to occur, but unlikely to lead to a collapse)

4.              1% social breakdown from other causes where violence escalates to a collapse

5.              0.7% the combined risks (many sources) of a nuclear war triggered collapse

The probability of collapse model was developed by Dr. Drew Miller, a retired AF Intelligence Officer and Colonel. 

After reviewing the results of the Collapse Survivor App scenario simulations and the Probability of Collapse Model updates, Dr/Col Drew Miller drew these conclusions of how things are likely to develop after Nov 5:

If Harris wins:

• Widespread, and often violent protests, more so than a Trump victory
• Criminals, gang members and bad people will take advantage of overwhelmed police to loot and even rob/kill people in their homes.  This violence will eventually die out or by force get under control in a few weeks
• Many rural, conservative counties in Democratic Party dominated state governments will expand current disobedience to unconstitutional gun control laws and increasingly defy both state laws violating Natural Rights protected by Bill of Rights and 9^th Amendment in particular, and unconstitutional Federal laws violating the 10^th Amendment.  Most of this disobedience will be peaceful, not violent.
• If the Democratic Party controls the House and Senate as well as the Presidency and attempts to pass gun bans and other unconstitutional laws, Texas will secede from the U.S., and other many other conservative states may join them.   There would be no civil war however, the state(s) would secede and be a largely cooperative foreign nation(s).

If Trump wins:

• Largely isolated protests and violence that quickly dies down.  The Democratic Party is backed by people who are more prone to follow government direction, less likely to engage in violence against authority.
• States with strong Democratic dominated state governments will experience internal civil war, with conservative/rural counties in Democratic-urban-liberal controlled states like California refusing to follow state laws they oppose (beyond current defiance of gun control laws).  This will be largely small-scale violence, but could erupt into a strong, violent civil war within states like CA, OR, NV, CO, IL, NY and MA that have liberal Democratic state governments that are increasingly forcing Big Government laws on rural counties.
• Very unlikely that strong Democratic Party controlled states like New York or California would secede.  If they do, Trump may try to use federal military forces to oppose them, but unlikely that the federal military would obey orders to wage war on seceding states.

“In sum, while there is likely to be some violent protests that criminals, gang members, and bad people will exploit to loot and maraud, this is highly unlikely to lead to a collapse.  People need to be prepared for this post-election day violence, but it will likely die down and not lead to a collapse.  Some break up of states and secession may occur, but this will take months to years to play out, and if the U.S. does break up there is not likely to be any clash of states or ‘civil war’.”

“My bigger concern is that the alliance of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea will exploit the U.S. divisions and a lame duck President from November thru January to use nuclear weapons, invade Taiwan, start a major war in the Middle East, invade South Korea, or directly attack the U.S. with a virus or attack on our electric grid.”

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