A recent Press Conference on the updated “Probability of Collapse model,†reviewed the high probability of Nuclear War, a Bioengineered H5N1Pandemic, Civil War risk, which have all increased.  The Probability of Collapse model now estimates a 16 to 57% annual likelihood of a collapse.
Trump has been warning about the increased likelihood of World War III. The 23 experts surveyed to update the Probability of Collapse Model agree.
Below are video links for the Oct press conference, which was held at Rocky Flats near Denver, a former nuclear weapons production plant.
After the Soviet Union fell, we expected the probability of nuclear war to go down. But both the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and experts who provided estimates for the Probability of Collapse model rate the likelihood of nuclear war as higher now than anytime since WW II.
This model weights both the probability of the initial trigger disaster event occurring, and then the likelihood of it spreading in coverage area and escalating to a collapse level disaster whet economic activity largely ceases, and there is widespread loss of law and order, society breaks down.
The press conference reviewed the many threats that could kill you directly or lead to economic shut down, looting, violence that escalates in unpredictable manner and results in marauder home invasions.
Six trends are promoting the high and rapidly rising likelihood of a collapse:
- New Technologies: DNA manipulation and bioengineering, nanotechnology, Artificial Intelligence, easier means to make nuclear materials,Â
- Rising overpopulation
- Increased economic interdependence, just in time inventories, long-distance sourcing
- Very high dependence on long-distance food shipments, inadequate local waterÂ
- Less personal resilience
- More bad people, gangs, prisoners ready to maraud
Top 5 collapse threats according to the Probability of Collapse model are:
- 3% annual likelihood:Â Loss of the electric grid, from solar flares, physical attacks, cyber attacks, or EMP from a nuclear detonation high in the atmosphere
- 2.6% annual chance of a pandemic; a bioengineered virus from a bio attack by nation states, terrorists, or individual, or a natural pandemic from a mutation
- 2% annual risk of a domestic civil war (far more likely to occur, but unlikely to lead to a collapse)
- 1% social breakdown from other causes where violence escalates to a collapse
- 0.7% the combined risks (many sources) of a nuclear war triggered collapse
Most people do not understand how a collapse could unfold and what will happen. Please pass on this preparedness news item to your friends and associates and encourage them to download Collapse Survivor and subscribe to receive preparedness information, threat updates, and real threat alerts. Fortitude Ranch, the nation’s largest recreational and survival community, uses the Collapse Survivor App to alert its members when a real collapse is developing.
